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      AAC Technologies (2018 HK) - The worst is likely behind, upgrade to NEUTRAL

      作者: Kevin CHEN,Clint SU
      時間: 2019年10月04日
      重要性: 一般報告
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      摘要: Report title:AAC Technologies (2018 HK) - The worst is likely behind, upgrade to NEUTRAL
      Analyst:Kevin CHEN,Clint SU
      Report type:Company
      Date:20191004
      [Summary]

      ■ Initial iPhone sales is tracking better than originally feared, while SLS adoption is rising among Android customers
      ■ 2Q19 likely a near-term bottom for the company, but challenges remain before a sustainable recovery
      ■ Upgrade to NEUTRAL as AAC moves past trough valuation; recent positives largely priced-in

      Worst is likely behind; N-T demand beats expectations

      We upgrade AAC to NEUTRAL (from SELL), as we believe the worst is likely behind for the company, driven by better-than-expected customer demand and improving SLS adoption. Initial iPhone sales have tracked ahead of the market’s muted expectations, helped by the more affordable iPhone 11 (from US$699, US$50 cheaper than past years). Recent news suggested a 10% increase in new iPhone production (news link). We now expect iPhone shipments ~180mn units in 2019. SLS adoption is gaining traction among Android customers. SLS shipments may account for 65% Android sales (vs. 35%/50% in 1Q/2Q19) by end-2019.

      Uncertainties remain before a sustainable recovery

      While 2Q19 likely marked a bottom for AAC this year, we still expect challenges for AAC to overcome before a sustainable recovery. Acoustic and haptics continue to face intense competition from Luxshare (002475 CH) and GoerTek (002241 CH), with 10-15% price erosion each year and worse pressure for legacy products. New innovative products such as edge haptics and stepper motors have yet to see meaningful adoption. The Optics revenue is showing strong growth (+73% YoY in 1H19), but competing against industry incumbents Sunny Optical (2382 HK) and Largan (3008 TT) may prove challenging.

      Upgrade to NEUTRAL; recent positives priced-in

      AAC shares surged 25%+ in one month, now trade at 20x/15x 2019/20E P/E (vs. its 16x historical average). We believe the shares have priced-in the near-term positives of recent handset launches. We upgrade AAC to NEUTRAL as we still have concerns over its structural issues and macro uncertainties. We lift our TP to HK$40 (from HK$33) as the company past its trough valuation, now based on 14x 2020E P/E. We raise our 2019-21E EPS estimates 3-5% on a better revenue/margin outlook.

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