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      Kunlun Energy (135 HK) - Accelerating natural gas downstream expansion

      作者: Tommy WONG,Eric SIU
      時間: 2019年10月03日
      重要性: 一般報告
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      摘要: Report title:Kunlun Energy (135 HK) - Accelerating natural gas downstream expansion
      Analyst:Tommy WONG,Eric SIU
      Report type:Company
      Date:20191003
      [Summary]

      ■ City gas sales volume growth at 25% YoY in 1H19 (above industry avg.), likely to exceed mgmt.’s full year guidance
      ■ Expect improvement in utilisation rate in LNG plants to help longer term turnaround in next two years
      ■ Concern on national pipeline asset inclusion has rocked share price, now trades at 7.2x FY20E PE, 44% discount to its peers
      Accelerate its NG downstream business expansion
      Kunlun’s business spans across 1) oil exploration and production, 2) natural gas sales, 3) long distance NG gas pipeline transmission, and 4) LNG terminals and plants. It has 340 city gas projects nationally, with Shandong, Jiangsu, Hebei, Yunnan and Sichuan being the key regions, combined ~40% of its number of city gas projects. City gas sales volume growth reached +25% YoY in 1H19, exceeding mgmt.’s full year guidance of +20% YoY growth. We believe its gas sales volume growth for 2019 will likely to reach +25% YoY growth supported by not only organic growth but also M&A, as it acquired 17 city gas projects from Jinhong Holdings (000669 SH, NR) in September, which can provide another c.1bcm annual gas sales volume, on top of its 8 city gas projects acquired in 1H19.
      Solid growth in gas pipeline transmission
      Shaanxi-Beijing Pipeline transmission gas volume growth remained solid as it achieved +7% YoY growth in 1H19, as the transmission volume growth for the trunk line of No.4 Shaanxi-Beijing Pipeline (45% of group capacity) reached 20% YoY growth over the same period. Its overall utilisation rate is also high at above 90%. Furthermore, its long distance NG pipeline accounted for over 40% of its operating profit in 1H19.
      Expect better utilisation rate in LNG terminals and plants
      Its 3 LNG terminals in Dalian, Jingtang and Jiangsu (annual LNG capacity of 19mn tons), continued to experience improvement in utilisation rate (70.8% in 1H19 vs. 70.4% in 1H18). Separately for LNG plants, mgmt. believes the utilisation rate to increase after the renewal of the gas procurement contract with PetroChina (857 HK, NR) early this year driving more gas supply to its plants for this winter.
      Trade at a discount among peers
      According to Bloomberg consensus, Kunlun trades at 7.2 FY20E PE, 44% discount to its Hong Kong listed peers and 26% discount to its 5 year average of 9.7x, due to concern on national pipeline asset inclusion has rocked share price. Key risks: 1) Slower than expected gas sales volume growth; 2) Further cut in gas transmission tariff; 3) Decrease in oil prices.

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